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Does the Warp Have Caller ID?

Jan 2nd, 2024

It's time to ask the question that's on everyone's mind lately: if you're going to broker a deal with a malevolent deity and exchange your soul for supernatural powers... which deity should you choose?

Like I introduced in a previous post, I embarked on developing an Iron Warriors collection over the back half of 2023. I have made quite a bit of progress modeling and painting up some units, and hope to share some photos soon.

In the meantime, this post will break down a fun theory-hammer/math-hammer thought experiment I've been mulling for a while as I prepare to hit the tables in 2024 with the Cult of Rust.

The main axis of customization in the the Slaves to Darkness launch detachment are how marks of different chaos gods amp up different aspects of your units' Dark Pacts:

• Khorne and Tzeentch grant Critical Hits on 5+ when affected by the [Lethal Hits] version of Dark Pacts in melee and shooting, respectively;
• Slaanesh and Nurgle grant Critical Hits on 5+ when affected by the [Sustained Hits 1] version of Dark Pacts in melee and shooting, respectively;
• Undivided grants reroll 1's to hit in melee and shooting for either version of Dark Pacts.

Intuitively this makes Khorne and Tzeentch seem optimal for attacking tough targets, whereas Slaanesh, Nurgle, and Undivided should be a more universal damage increase against all targets.

I wanted to crunch some numbers to see exactly how these Marks interacted with different hit & wound rolls. First, let's set the baseline:

Baseline 40k attack efficiency chart (no modifiers)

Values reflect the number of expected wounds per attack given the hit/wound requirements on row/column axes.

Efficiency of Dark Pacts for Sustained Hits (6+)

As expected, Dark Pacts for [Sustained Hits 1] provides a modest damage increase in all situations, achieving greatest efficiency on lower BS/WS attacks where the extra hit represents a great proportion of that model's expected total number of hits. Conversely, the efficiency from [Sustained Hits 1] does not depend on the target's toughness in any way.

Efficiency of Dark Pacts for Lethal Hits (6+)

Again as we expected, the benefit of lethal hits depends heavily on the attackers strength and the target's toughness, ranging from a +4% increase when hitting and wounding on a 2+ to an insane +500% increase when hitting and wounding on a 6+ (although this will essentially ~never come up for Chaos Marines, who almost always have BS/WS in the 2+ to 4+ range).

Differential efficiency of Sustained Hits vs. Lethal Hits

Comparing the above two tables reveals a few interesting trends:

1. The absolute difference in expected number of wounds between [Sustained Hits 1] and [Lethal Hits] is totally invariant with respect to the attacking model's WS/BS. This is convenient because it allows us to extrapolate these trends to all units in the CSM Index whether they be a Cultist or a Chaos Lord.
2. [Sustained Hits 1] are far superior when the attacker's strength is double the target's toughness (wounding on 2+), where each attack will net an average of +0.11 extra wounds when benefitting from exploding 6's versus auto-wounding 6's. [Sustained Hits 1] also nets an average of +0.06 wounds per hit above [Lethal Hits] when wounding on 3+.
3. Reciprocally, [Lethal Hits] expects an average +0.11 extra wounds over exploding 6's when attacking very tough targets (wounding on a 6+), which drops down to +0.06 expected wounds per attack when wounding on a 5+.
4. The two Pacts are perfectly tied when wounding targets on a 4+.

Next, let's look at how the god marks change these expectations.

Efficiency of Dark Pact for Sustained Hits (5+) with Mark of Slaanesh/Nurgle

The marks of Slaanesh or Nurgle provide a consistent damage boost in either melee or shooting, respectively, which falls off slightly (in absolute terms) versus tougher targets.

Efficiency of Dark Pact for Lethal Hits (5+) with Mark of Khorne/Tzeentch

The marks of Khorne and Tzeentch provide extremely powerful buffs for low-strength attacks punching up against high-toughness targets, reaching an insane >300% damage increase in some cases like Legionary heavy bolters shooting T8+ targets, but don't make much of a difference over the standard Lethal Hits (6+) option versus low-toughness targets.

But what if you don't want to pledge yourself to any one Chaos god, and are instead feeling downright polytheistic? Let's take a look at the last (but not least) option, the Mark of Chaos Undivided.

Efficiency of Dark Pact for Sustained Hits (6+) with Mark of Chaos Undivided

These calculations highlight just how powerful rerolling 1's can be when combined with exploding 6's to hit. For example, a Chaos Lord (WS2+) with the Mark of Undivided who also performed a Dark Pact for [Sustained Hits 1] should expect 1.17 hits per attack. Yes, you read that right: that is 17% more hits than attacks!

The downside of this configuration is that it really doesn't do much (again, in terms of absolute number of wounds inflicted) against tough targets, so the effect is best focused on situations where your weapons have sufficient strength to wound the target on 2+, 3+, or 4+, and you are just hoping to crank up the volume of attacks to pound wounds through.

Efficiency of Dark Pact for Lethal Hits (6+) with Mark of Chaos Undivided

Here we observe our first potential weak Mark + Pact combination. Yes, Undivided units who choose [Lethal Hits] will certainly outperform units without these benefits, but they only marginally exceed the damage expected by Undivided units with [Sustained Hits 1] against tough targets and fall far short of Khorne/Tzeentch units against these same tough enemies.

However, it's worth mentioning two major perks of the Mark of Chaos Undivided over mono-god Marks:

1. The Mark of Undivided works in both shooting and combat, whereas other gods' Marks work in one or the other (but not both), and
2. Undivided units can choose which Dark Pact benefit is optimal for their target each time they activate, whereas the efficiency of mono-god Marked units falls off as soon as they have to activate their suboptimal Dark Pact or find themselves in their less optimal phase (e.g., shooting for Khorne/Slaanesh or melee for Nurgle/Tzeentch.

So yes, while the Mark of Chaos Undivided is strictly weaker than other God marks versus the most optimal targets, Undivided units boast substantial flexibility not afforded to other monotheistic units.

Other Considerations

The interaction between Marks and Dark Pacts is perhaps the most important factor when choosing a Mark, but there are two other key aspects worth weighing on a unit-by-unit basis: Stratagems and Enhancements.

As a brief summary; the Slaves to Darkness 10^th Edition launch detachment has six stratagems that can be used on any unit. However, five of these six stratagems work better on units when they have a specific Mark (one for each god, plus Undivided). In addition, characters can only join units with the same Mark as them, meaning the Enhancements available to characters can only benefit units of the same Mark.

Below I'll try to quickly summarize the key takeaways that might influence when a certain Mark might be a smart choice even if its interaction with Dark Pacts isn't mathematically optimal for that unit's offensive profile:

• Nurgle: The Nurgle stratagem, Dark Obscuration (1CP), is ludicrously powerful, as it renders one of your Nurgle-marked units unshootable outside of 12" for an entire shooting phase. This has myriad potential uses, but perhaps the two most obvious are allowing backline fire support units to expose themselves in a firing lane to get angles on desirable targets without fearing reprisal, and on Nurgle-marked transports carrying non-Nurgle-marked melee units (as the Nurgle mark is essentially useless on dedicated melee units). On the other hand, the Nurgle Enhancement, Orbs of Unlife (25 points), is a cute mortal wound mechanic that works only in melee, which again doesn't really synergize well with what Nurgle units want to be doing in this detachment: shooting!
• Tzeentch: Tzeentch's stratagem, Skinshift (1CP), is potentially useful on non-Tzeentch units (healing up to 3 lost wounds) but becomes much more useful on Tzeentch-marked units by resurrecting an entire model in addition to the three-wound heal. This can be massively efficient on shooting units comprised of multi-wound models like Obliterators. Their enhancement, Eye of Tzeentch (30 points), is a bit more notable than Nurgle's as it's one of the only ways in the entire Detachment to generate command points. Its mechanics are a bit gimmmicky, as the character (or their unit) must first perform a Dark Pact and then the character must pass a leadership test to generate that sweet, sweet CP.
• Slaanesh: Slaanesh has the honor of boasting the best relic in this detachment. For a mere 15 points, the Intoxicating Elixir can grant Feel No Pain 5+ to the character of your choosing. This is often seen in competitive lists on chunky multi-wound characters like Daemon Princes. The added durability benefit alone is worth far more than 15 points, but the Elixir also forces one of your opponent's units to take a Battle Shock test each time the character shoots or fights, which would be awesome if it lasted through your opponent's next command phase to disrupt Primary Objectives... but rules-as-written probably won't do anything in most games. Slaanesh has a notable stratagem as well: Unnatural Swiftness (1CP) allows any unit to fall back, shoot, and charge, but extends to enabling advance, shoot, and charge for Slaanesh-marked units.
• Khorne: Khorne's strategem, Eternal Hate (1CP), is a bit disappointing for the devoted followers of the Blood God, as it only improves the ability to fight on death from a 4+ (for all units, irrespective of god alignment) to 3+ (for Khorne-marked units). This boon does translate into an expected +16% damage increase when using this strategem but the use-cases are too niche to build around. On the other hand, the Khorne enhancement, Talisman of Burning Blood (25 points), adds a flat +1A and +1S to the bearer's melee weapons, which increases to +D3 if the bearer performed a Dark Pact that phase. I theoretically like this most either on characters with S8 weapons, where the extra strength from the Talisman could push above key wound breakpoints, or on the Exalted Champion, who already gains +D3 Strength in melee after making a Dark Pact (and would therefore hit with 6-8 attacks at WS2+, strength 7-11, AP-2, and D2 with the Talisman.
• Undivided: We've saved the best for last. The Undivided stratagem, Profane Zeal (1CP), is completely off the rails in terms of raw power. This strat confers reroll 1's to hit and wound to any unit (which is a reasonable use of 1CP already) but grants full rerolls to hit AND wound (!!!) on Undivided-marked units. Granted, this is very slightly less impressive than it sounds because Undivided units already reroll 1's to hit when making Dark Pacts, but the full reroll wounds is a massive force multiplier that can be applied to any unit of your choosing. This is so insanely competitively powerful that I expect it has a 50/50 shot of getting nerfed to 2CP in the impending January Balance Dataslate. The Undivided enhancement, Liber Hereticus (40 points), pales in comparison. It allows the character's unit to benefit from both [Sustained Hits 1] and [Lethal Hits] when performing a Dark Pact, but that feels a little too expensive at 40 points for my tastes. Moreover, the Helbrute provides the same effect in a 6" aura and--crucially--applies to god-aligned units, unlocking Critical Hits on a 5+ in conjunction with both [Sustained Hits 1] and [Lethal Hits].

Marks of Chaos: Conclusions and Takeaways

Just like the complex machinations of the Chaos Gods in The Great Game, choosing god alignments for your units in the Slaves to Darkness detachment is not a simple affair. To summarize what we learned from this analysis:

Dark Pacts

• Pray for [Sustained Hits 1] when your unit wounds the target on a 2+ or 3+, and
• Pray for [Lethal Hits] when your unit wounds the target on a 5+ or 6+.

Marks

• Nurgle is best for (i) anti-armor shooting units or (ii) utility units with incidental damage output that need to be protected from enemy firepower (Rhinos, cultists, etc).
• Tzeentch is great on units with either high-volume shooting and/or multi-wound models; Obliterators, Bikers, and Terminators all satisfy both criteria.
• Slaanesh has three distinct use cases: (i) on utility units that would benefit from advance-and-charge, like Raptors or Bikes; (ii) on high-strength melee units who don't need [Lethal Hits]; (iii) on a solo character you want to make tanky with the Intoxicating Elixir.
• Khorne is unsurprisingly best on melee units with a high volume of attacks. That's it. No subtlety here.
• Undivided is probably the best fall-back choice for generalist units, especially for damage dealers, and especially when paired with a Chaos Lord for a second free use of Profane Zeal in a phase.