---

Predictions for Chaos in the January 2024 Balance Dataslate

Jan 12th, 2024

The January 2024 Balance Dataslate & updated Munatorium Field Manual are expected later this month. Let's make some predictions about what might happen to the Cult of Rust!

Although I don't have a chance to play much 40k, I do enjoy listening to podcasts and reviews from competitive 40k players to stay up on the state-of-the-game.

It seems like Chaos Space Marines are unambiguously one of the (if not the singular) best factions in the game along with Craftworld Eldar. Given CSM's prominance at the top of the competitive metagame, it seems like a safe bet that the faction's prodigious power will be toned down later this month.

I thought it might be fun to make some predictions on what we might expect for CSM (and, in some cases, their allies) in the impending 40k balance update. Once the January 2024 update is released, I'll write a second post comparing my predictions to the actual changes in an attempt to take stock of the Chaos superfaction going forward.

Without further ado, here are my predictions:

Points increases:

• Accursed Cultists +5
• Chaos Lord +10-15
• Chosen +10-15
• Dark Commune +15-20
• Forgefiends +10-15
• Knight Rampager +20
• Nurglings +5-10
• Obliterators +5
• Rhino +5
• War Dog Karnivores +5-10

Points decreases:

• Beastmen -10
• Helbrute -5
• Heldrake -10 (realistically it should be at least -25 but GW doesn’t want to make fliers competitive in 10^th edition, apparently)
• Knight Tyrant -25
• Lord Discordant -10
• Raptors -5
• Spawn -5-15
• Vashtorr -10

Rules changes:

• Dark Pacts will be weakened. My best guess would be that the mechanic will be changed such that a unit must pass their leadership test before recieving [Sustained Hits 1] or [Lethal Hits]
• The Profane Zeal stratagem will be increased to 2CP and/or will be reclassified as not a Battle Tactic
• Infernal Rites will be decreased to 1CP
• It's possible they may do something to correct the use (abuse?) of Nurgle-marked Rhinos. For instance, maybe the Rhino datasheet will get a clarification that it can only transport units with the same mark. If this happens, I expect that the points nerfs to Chosen & Chaos Lords will be on lower side)

I don't expect GW to implement all of the changes above, but I think this suite of corrections (or some subset thereof) would drop CSM rapidly to the middle of the pack in terms of faction power rankings while still keeping them fun to play. As a newly minted Chaos player myself, I genuinely wouldn't mind these changes!

I'll report back once the January 40k update is posted for a post mortem analysis on how my predictions fared. May Tzeentch be kind...